Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 11.149678 12.783194 14.545963 16.586244 18.879196 21.372944 24.286775
2025-05-11 8.550179 10.713273 13.232672 16.370302 20.158527 24.569123 30.076657
2025-05-18 7.291735 9.674079 12.587412 16.386945 21.183165 27.005586 34.574468
2025-05-25 6.401059 8.938723 12.179578 16.581667 22.358614 29.629434 39.412656
2025-06-01 5.646300 8.250349 11.705371 16.567797 23.166805 31.733430 43.603483
2025-06-08 4.982302 7.595003 11.186670 16.409436 23.718649 33.477845 47.363241
2025-06-15 4.524851 7.169111 10.923023 16.544879 24.631796 35.702515 51.826780
2025-06-22 4.235770 6.951596 10.921419 17.026722 26.028092 38.628111 57.364451
2025-06-29 3.809212 6.478678 10.497507 16.845124 26.436425 40.161904 60.993942
2025-07-06 3.286275 5.799857 9.700886 16.033129 25.843653 40.200457 62.445288
2025-07-13 3.103856 5.649761 9.702191 16.430506 27.071365 42.930899 67.920875
2025-07-20 2.921125 5.479690 9.653566 16.736445 28.161807 45.491464 73.239292
2025-07-27 2.666606 5.167935 9.357943 16.636572 28.628071 47.157910 77.335057
2025-08-03 2.412378 4.831732 8.993858 16.395385 28.848201 48.448836 80.908844
2025-08-10 2.231730 4.609249 8.801854 16.420615 29.488761 50.407724 85.583803
2025-08-17 2.094941 4.454500 8.713792 16.612690 30.408209 52.841190 91.101521
2025-08-24 1.940499 4.250078 8.519034 16.599839 30.971248 54.710733 95.775328
2025-08-31 1.780594 4.018498 8.254919 16.440845 31.265280 56.138952 99.772533
2025-09-07 1.673957 3.883512 8.158863 16.576645 32.073996 58.447486 105.300930
2025-09-14 1.618026 3.848066 8.248577 17.059271 33.519152 61.884312 112.842418
2025-09-21 1.489279 3.645003 7.996189 16.877378 33.748916 63.242046 116.903696
2025-09-28 1.304947 3.301180 7.436334 16.063982 32.768450 62.445776 117.221800
2025-10-05 1.259679 3.264036 7.494630 16.462044 34.062609 65.695431 124.679713